The changing politics of climate change look optimistic

Although the politics around climate change are fluctuating furiously, there is still strong collective support for clean energy, so focusing on national and subnational commitments could be the key to progress.

A modest set of targets due to failure to reach a treaty in Copenhagen and the high costs so far spent in vain on climate talks and efforts, have pushed nations to focus on negotiation.

The party political scene in the US is also shifting the approach taken to climate action. Since Republicans took the majority in Congress, there are powerful politicians who have vowed to thwart climate change mitigation efforts when they take leadership positions.

Many Republican views are skeptical with regard to man made climate change and it appears highly unlikely that the US will join any international binding agreement to mitigate the effects of global warming.

Activity at the 16th Conference of Parties (COP16) in Cancun indicates that nations have some mutual understanding of the new political reality of the climate battle.

In the second week of COP16 in Cancun, Timothy Wirth, President of the United Nations Foundation (UNF) is reported by rechargenews.com to have said: "The US and China have made constructive statements on emissions verification, and proposals to reduce and prevent deforestation have accumulated real momentum."

Until this apparent progress, the US and China - the top greenhouse gas emitters - have locked horns with regard to who has the right to emit the most emissions. Both nations have also shown opposition to ratifying a renewed Kyoto Protocol - with commitments made under the current agreement expiring in 2012.

It appears that with both China and the US coming to some mutual understanding in COP16, and the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors maturing quickly, solutions to the gridlock are accelerating.

National parties at COP16 have demonstrated recognition that a domestic and subnational focus could be more beneficial than waiting for a binding international treaty.

Rather than pushing for a large-scale global agreement, negotiators are focusing on the details of a climate fund that will help finance renewable energy, energy efficiency and mitigation projects in developing countries. Even if political leaders cannot agree on how, or whether, to price or regulate carbon, there is still support for investment in technological solutions at the subnational level.

Sir Richard Branson, Founder of Virgin Airlines, recently wrote a piece in the Guardian newspaper encouraging the investment community to stay ahead of policymakers: "Legislation and public policy will only shape the market, it will not deliver solutions," he wrote.

A bottom-up approach on a national and subnational level has shown much success in China's clean tech industry. According to a report from Ernst & Young published on 30th November 2010, in the second quarter of 2010, China committed US$10 billion of its stimulus funds to clean energy projects - figure that is on the upturn. This investment outweighs that from any other nation and Chinese companies are dominating where other nations are faltering.

It is hoped that the initiation of negotiations between the US and China and other nations will reduce fears that tension between the nations to dominate the clean tech sector could lead to widespread protectionism and spark a trade war.

Although climate change politics in the US are perturbing, the US renewable energy industry leaders are pushing for extensions of the federal grant programme and key tax credits. This move is motivated by the fact that aside from solar, which has an investment tax credit through 2016, tax credits for other technologies expire in one or two years, making it difficult to plan large-scale projects.

Trade groups have pushed for extensions in a bill before Congress that will increase tax cuts and unemployment benefits, however this has not yet become enacted.

Industry leaders have continued the movement towards a localised approach and have halted their push for a comprehensive energy policy on the federal level.

With the prospects for cap and trade and a national renewable energy standard virtually dead, Lewis Milford, President and Founder of the non-profit policy and investment advisory firm Clean Energy Group said the US needs to focus on "policy pragmatism" and establish solutions on a more local level.

"We've tried big and grand, let's try small and experimental and work from the bottom up, rather than assume we have the answers in Washington to all these problems," said Milford.

Recently, Milford co-authored a report for the Clean Energy Group outlining some ideas on how to redeploy existing federal dollars to programmes at the state level. He stated that by giving more local control over financial resources we can continue building the clean energy industry without a climate bill or national renewable energy target.

The culture and politics of the climate change sphere are altering in a way which appears to be becoming collectively accepted in COP16 thus far. If expectations reach reality and an international treaty is not signed, time will tell whether a domestic approach taken by all nations will be effective in the move to a greener future.

Author: Marianna Keen | Climate Action

Image: Wayne National Forest