South American COP21 climate plans insufficient says new study

South American governments should be doing more to halt global warming under 2˚C, according to a report published last Thursday.

Independent body Climate Action Tracker (CAT), have not rated any of the climate plans, titled Intended Nationally Determines Contributions (INDCs), published by Latin American countries as “sufficient”.  

Brazil and Peru received a “medium” rating for their targets, being at the weaker end of a “fair” contribution to global efforts.

This is the same category as the EU, US and China.

Chile and Argentina’s INDCs, meanwhile, were labelled “inadequate”. If all countries adopt this lower level of ambition, the body stated, global warming will exceed 3-4°C this century.

“None of these countries will be immune to the effects of climate change. An increase in warming of 2˚C would have severe impacts on all four of them, and on the rest of the continent,” said Marcia Rocha, head of climate policy at Climate Analytics.

“Yet instead of taking action commensurate with the size of the threat, these governments are largely sticking with their current policies, which are heading in the wrong direction.”

Dr Rocha stated that each Latin American country holds vast potential with regards to cutting carbon emissions.

“Brazil has a large share of hydro power, yet its energy market is projected to increase by more than 50% between 2012 and 2030.  While it is good that   renewable energy share is set to grow, Brazil needs to be careful it doesn’t recarbonise its electricity sector,” the head of climate policy stated.

Argentina, too, was encouraged to further its plans by the expert: “for a country with such large emissions, and facing quite extreme impacts from global warming,  it is disappointing to see such an inadequate effort.”

In Peru, rapid expansion of mining, agriculture and illegal logging jeopardise a goal to reach zero deforestation by 2021.

“With its current deforestation rates, it is difficult to see how Peru is going to meet its climate target,” said Juan Pablo Osornio, researcher at Ecofys.

“These four South American climate targets are collectively disappointing, with this region extremely vulnerable to climate impacts and many already being observed, now would be the time to really ramp up policies and ambition,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, added.

Even if global warming is held to 2C, Peru is expected to lose 90% of its glaciers, pictured, raising the risk of water shortages.

To date, 155 countries have submitted national contributions to a UN climate deal to be finalised in Paris this December.

CAT estimates the aggregate effect is to limit warming to 2.7C.

This is an improvement on the 3.6C under business as usual, but far from the ultimate goal.

It judges only four countries to be making sufficient efforts: Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Morocco and the tiny mountain kingdom of Bhutan.