Probability of a climate deal this year is unlikely

The Chinese Government has expressed pessimism over the likelihood of a climate deal being reached at this year's Conference of Parties (COP) in Cancun, Mexico. The summit's aim is to bring nations together to create an agreement over how to halt climate change in the coming years. After Copenhagen's failure to produce an adequate bill, hopes have lain in this year's conference in Cancun. The Chinese Government's declaration that it is looking to seal a binding worldwide contract on climate change by the end of 2011, means that this years talks will, potentially, come to nothing.

Although other countries have previously asserted the opinion that this year's summit will not result in a binding treaty it is the first time the world's number one emitter, China, has expressed these views.

Xie Zhenhua, a senior Chinese climate official stated that, "According to the current negotiating process, every country is taking quite a pragmatic approach. We hope that this year everyone can increase mutual trust, and move forward in exchanging opinions on all key problems, so we can have a positive result from this year's meeting in Cancun . . . At the same time, we have not set in advance a goal that we must draw up a legally binding treaty."

The Chinese Government has promised to cut its energy consumption by 20 per cent from 2005 levels by the end of 2010. At the COP in Copenhagen the Chinese Government also vowed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. However, after energy intensity fell 14.88 over the four previous years, so far this year it has risen by 3.2 per cent. This is due to growth in many industries, Beijing is anxious about these losses and has stepped up efforts to try and reach this year's goal.

The Chinese Government believes that, despite its determination to cut emissions, climate legislation is still a along way off. Xie is of the opinion that despite negotiations and promises from many nations, "converting political will into concrete action" will not be easy.

The summit at Cancun will aim to build on the Copenhagen accord that was established last December. The 194 nations that attended were trying to put together a treaty to slow climate change over the next decade and to replace the Kyoto Protocol due to end in 2012. Developing nations, such as China, had been excluded from the protocol, which has been criticised, and the Copenhagen Accord has also been criticised over its lack of obligation.

There are high hopes that this year in Cancun a treaty will be created that will truly help in the battle against climate change. Xie said the only target that would be achieved is a "positive result". Many nations believe that realistically an adequate treaty won't be decided upon until the COP in 2011 and The Chinese Government's assertion of this notion has entrenched it further into nations' minds.

 

Author: Rachael Bristow | Climate Action

Image: Philip Jagenstedt | Flickr