El Niño continues to increase in severity just weeks ahead of COP31

El Niño is continuing to strengthen ahead of its peak in December, with scientists describing it as “unprecedented.” Combined with global warming, 2027 is expected to be one of the hottest years on record.

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it. Typically, winds blow east to west, but when these winds weaken or reverse, warmer water spreads east across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

When the water in this region warms by 0.5°C, El Niño is declared, which usually happens once every few years. This warming triggers global effects such as droughts, floods and higher temperatures.

El Niño is happening alongside human-driven climate change, and it is difficult to identify how much of the temperature rise is caused by each. Either way, together they make extreme weather more intense. Wildfires in Indonesia were predicted to increase, and this has been borne out. Meteorologists have also suggested the UK will experience a much wetter autumn and winter, followed by a colder spring.

These extreme weather events are unfolding in the lead-up to COP31 in Antalya, where global leaders will convene to deliver climate action. With the effects felt globally, it is critical to determine strategies for adapting to global warming and its impacts on natural cycles.

Alongside cutting greenhouse gas emissions, scientists have suggested planting more heat-tolerant crops, supporting infrastructure development in the global South, and exploring geoengineering options to alter clouds.