Emissions targets hang in the balance

Discussions surrounding the future of the Kyoto Protocol and legislation to replace it have been ongoing over the last couple of years with no decisive end in sight. Recently, for the first time, the UN has conveyed the possible options available if no agreement is reached.

This contingency plan is a result of the faltering negotiations that have been taking place in the run up to the protocol's expiration in 2012 as if no replacement is agreed upon countries will no longer be required to maintain emissions reductions targets. The next major conference will be held in Cancun in November, this will be the third year of talks after failure to meet the deadline for an agreement at the Copenhagen conference last year.

Due to the pressure of finding a solution, attention may turn to focus on ways to soften the legal requirement in order to achieve cooperation from the greatest number of countries. In order to prevent a gap between the Kyoto Protocol and any future agreement suggestions have been made to cut the number of countries required for approval or to extend the existing caps on carbon emissions to 2013-14 as a temporary solution in the absence of a new treaty. The paper published by the UN stressed that:

"A delay in the entry into force beyond 1 January 2013 would result in a gap between the end of the first commitment period and the beginning of the subsequent commitment period (of emissions targets)."

The Kyoto Protocol places caps on around 40 developed countries whereas a new pact would seek to gain the cooperation of 143 or more. It took eight years to agree on the first protocol so it could still take years to come to a new agreement which is concerning as emissions need to be cut to curb climate change. Countries could now be forced to accept the decisions made by the majority of members after two years of stalemate; pressure to reach a conclusion in Cancun is evident. If the suggestions the UN have put forth are adopted decisions will be forced through if the majority vote in favour. Mark Lynas, an adviser to the Maldives government stated

"It shows the UN now recognises that we're in a situation of almost total deadlock and that the current process is not working or helping. The formal negotiations are not getting anywhere."

The UN has also suggested an opt-out clause that could force some countries out of the agreement where currently they must agree to any decisions made. As Lynas describes:

"An amendment would enter into force after a certain period has elapsed following its adoption, except for those parties that have notified the depositary that they cannot accept the amendment."

This could however exacerbate existing friction between rich and poor nations involved in the current negotiations. Some countries may feel side lined but the question is whether China and America will cooperate as without them progress will be futile. Another big question still to be answered is whether promises and pledges will go far enough to reach the targets that need to be met in order to avoid disastrous global warming.

 

Author: Rachael Bristow | Climate Action

Image: HAM guy | Flickr