China’s emissions could peak by 2025, says LSE report
GHG emissions in China could peak five years earlier than previously estimated according to new research by the London School of Economics
Greenhouse gas emissions in China could peak by 2025, five years earlier than previously estimated, according to new research by the London School of Economics (LSE) released on Monday.
China is the world’s top emitter of GHGs and the latest developments could represent significant progress on global efforts to limit emissions and prevent a global average temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial times that scientists say would cause catastrophic climate change impacts including sea level rises, droughts and flooding.
The authors of the new study including Lord Nicholas Stern and Fergus Green, both from LSE's Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, estimated that overall GHG emissions in China could peak between 12.5 billion and 14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2025.
The report said China's "coal consumption fell in 2014, and fell further in the first quarter of 2015…China's greenhouse gas emissions are unlikely to peak as late as 2030 - the upper limit set by President Xi Jinping in November 2014 - and are much more likely to peak by 2025."
The development is being linked to the country’s huge investment in renewable energy with China now the world's top investor in wind and solar power.
The study also says that China has been replacing old fossil fuel powered plants with cleaner new versions which have brought down emissions.
China has been prompted into action by chronic air pollution problems that have blighted areas of the country.
The news comes in the build up to the major U.N. climate conference in Paris in December and experts predict it could stimulate global markets for clean technologies and negatively impact fossil fuels exporters.
The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) takes place in the French capital later this year and a global deal to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is expected to be agreed.
The authors of the LSE study said: "The UN climate change conference in Paris later this year will be more successful if governments everywhere understand the extent of change in China its implications for global emissions."
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama reached a landmark agreement in November to set limits on carbon emissions.
Xi Jinping agreed to a date for peak CO2 emissions and also pledged to raise the share of zero-carbon energy to 20 per cent of the country's total.
President Barack Obama said the U.S would reduce its GHG emissions by more than a quarter by 2025.
