Climate Action

Electric vehicle sales will top 10 million by 2025

Sales of new electric vehicles (EVs) will reach 11 million within the next eight years, according to new analysis.

  • 22 May 2018
  • Adam Wentworth

Sales of new electric vehicles (EVs) will reach 11 million within the next eight years, according to new analysis.

Last year saw a record 1.1 million of new sales, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). Its latest market forecast shows EVs going from strength-to-strength and will increasingly become a dominant force in the automobile industry. By 2030, sales are expected to reach 30 million, accounting for 28 percent of the global market.

China will drive this growth with 39 percent of all EV sales taking place within the country by end of the next decade. Electric buses are also the star performer in the new modelling, with China again making up the majority of demand, to which other countries will follow.

Last year, the country contributed an astonishing 99 percent of global sales in e-buses, and there are now a total of 300,000 such vehicles on its roads.

Looking further out to 2040, BNEF predicts 80 percent of the world’s municipal bus fleet to be an electric. An important development given the sector’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

The EV market is also expected to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel within the next 20 years, but will inevitably contribute to higher demand of electricity, adding 6 percent to the global need.

In addition, sourcing the materials needed for batteries, such as lithium and cobalt, could provide a challenge to continued growth.

Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst, said: “While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge.”

Climate Action has previously reported on whether charging points can keep up with the increased demand for cleaner forms of transport.